Danish bank Saxo Bank has published its 10 scandalous financial forecasts for 2022.
Continuing nearly two decades of tradition, the bank’s pundits have made predictions like “consensus-shattering forecasts” that “send shockwaves through the markets” – but only if they come true.
While the analyst and finance fundis group’s forecasts are historically “speculative, but based on sound economic principles,” the largely unexpected spread of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 has called for a change of course, with wild calls for 2021 adopt a more “futuristic” approach.
These included predictions like Amazon “buying” Cyprus by moving its headquarters there and using its investments to influence tax laws and policies. That didn’t happen – although Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos has been to space.
Other predictions for 2021 have also turned out to be a bit out of the realm of reality: Silver prices have not risen as expected, although commodity prices have proven to be a saving grace for many. investors as the waves of Covid-19 diminished and demand increased.
Blockchain technology did not emerge as the fake news killer we hoped to be. Instead, fake news and misinformation about Covid-19 vaccines has escalated throughout the year, as blockchain has gone in a completely different direction: confusing the general public with the trend for non-tokens. fungible (NFT).
A fairly accurate prediction for 2021 was the increase in universal basic income subsidies, and how a shift in employment trends, technology, and work-from-home policies would “decimate” big cities.
While the world’s cities are far from ‘decimated’, they are under immense pressure because of the aspects listed in the prediction – including South African cities, where offices are empty and big companies are passing through. more permanent at the home office. hybrid working methods.
A shocking 2022
For its 2022 forecast, Saxo analysts still take a futuristic path, but also feed on the sense of revolution that has filtered through much of 2021.
“As cultural wars rage across the world, it is no longer a question of whether we get a socio-economic revolution, but of when and how,” he said. “There is a theme of revolution and disruption, and we have some exciting calls for 2022 – you won’t like them all. “
“We must stress our annual warning, that these outrageous predictions should not be taken as our official take on the market and politics. This year, more than ever, we are trying to inspire you and ourselves to think outside the box and discuss the important topics we raise. Let the fun and the future begin.
A the full forecast is available on the Saxo Bank website.
Plan to end fossil fuels gets a rain check
Policymakers are pushing back climate targets and supporting investments in fossil fuels to tackle inflation and the risk of social unrest while rethinking the path to a low-carbon future.
Realizing the inflationary threat of soaring commodity prices and the risk of an economic train crash due to the unrealistic timing of the green energy transition, policymakers are pushing climate targets back on the road. They ease investment red tape for five years for oil production and ten years for natural gas production, to encourage producers to ensure adequate and reasonably priced supplies that bridge the energy gap current and future low carbon energy.
Facebook Faceplants on the exodus of young people
Young people abandon Facebook platforms to protest their extraction of personal information for profit; Facebook Meta’s parent attempt to bring them back with the Metaverse stumbles.
In 2012, 94% of teens had a Facebook account, while polls suggest that today only 27% of teens have an account. Facebook has grown from a vibrant youth hub to a platform for older “baby boomers”. Young people are increasingly turned off by Facebook’s algorithms that turn their social media experiences into seamless feedback loops of identical content, or worse yet, hateful and misinforming content.
U.S. midterm elections lead to constitutional crisis
The midterm election in the United States sees a deadlock on the certification of the near results of the Senate and / or House elections, leading to a scenario where the 118th Congress will not be able to sit as planned in early 2023.
Following the 2022 election, a handful of key Senate and House races have been played out and one or both parties oppose certification of the vote, preventing the new Congress from forming and sitting on the first day of January. 3, 2023. Joe Biden reigns by executive order and America’s democracy is suspended as even Democrats also grapple with the Supreme Court which was heavily tilted by Trump. Indeed, as 2023 begins, the impasse sees a real constitutional crisis looming on the horizon.
US inflation exceeds 15% in a wage-price spiral
In the fourth quarter of 2022, CPI inflation in the United States reaches an annualized rate of 15% as companies increase their wages in an attempt to find volunteer and skilled workers, triggering an unprecedented wage-price spiral. since the 1970s.
In the late 1960s, the US Federal Reserve and then-Fed Chairman McChesney Martin misjudged how well they could manage the US labor market without stoking inflation. This mistake paved the way for uncontrollable inflation expectations and a massive wage and price spiral in the following decade. In 2022, the Federal Reserve and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell are repeating the same mistake again, as the post-Covid epidemic economy and in particular the labor market are severely constrained by supply, mocking the traditional Fed models.
Announcement of an EU superfund for climate, energy and defense – to be financed by private pensions
To defend against rising populism, deepen the commitment to slow climate change and defend its borders as America’s security umbrella recedes, the EU is launching a daring $ 3 trillion Superfund to be funded by retirement allowances rather than new taxes.
The EU knows that it must act quickly on all fronts to strengthen its defenses and is also looking for a way to revive the declining economies, shaken by the energy and electricity crisis of 2021-2022. French President Macron, backed by Italian Prime Minister Draghi striving to avoid the rise of populists in Italy, presents vision of a “European superfund” that will meet the triple priorities of defense, climate and transition towards related clean energy.
Women’s Reddit Army Tackles Corporate Patriarchy
Mimicking the Reddit Army tactics of 2020-21, a group of female traders is launching a coordinated assault on companies with poor track records of gender equality, resulting in huge swings in stock prices for the targeted companies.
Unlike the original, often nihilistic Reddit Army, the Women’s Reddit Army will be more sophisticated, with female traders coordinating a lengthy squeeze by short-selling the shares of selected patriarch companies. At the same time, they will channel funds to companies with the best indicators of the representation of women in middle management and among managers. Instead of condemning development, politicians around the world are welcoming and supporting their cause.
India joins Gulf Cooperation Council as non-voting member
Global geopolitical alliances will enter a phase of drastic realignment as we have a nasty cocktail of de-globalizing geopolitical news and much higher energy prices.
Inter-regional trading zones will ensure ‘closer to home’ production and investment, combined with reliable security of supply from India’s point of view, and a reliable destination market from GCC’s point of view. The alliance is helping lay the groundwork for GCC countries to plan for their future beyond oil and gas and for India to accelerate development through huge new investments in infrastructure and improved productivity agriculture as well as fossil fuel imports, paving the way for a longer-term carbon post-future.
Spotify disrupted due to NFT-based digital rights platform
Musicians are ready for change as the current paradigm of music streaming means that labels and streaming platforms capture 75-95% of the revenue paid to listen to music streaming. In 2022, new blockchain-based technology will help them recoup their fair share of the industry’s revenue.
Non-fungible tokens, or NFTs, are unique digital assets, the ownership of which can be established and stored on a digital ledger through blockchain technology. By leveraging NFTs, specifically through “smart contract” blockchains, artists could distribute music directly to listeners without a centralized middleman, while tracking their income in real time, or even getting paid in real time, listeners appreciate the knowledge that the money they pay goes directly to the artist.
New hypersonic technology drives space race and new cold war
The latest tests of hypersonic missiles are giving rise to growing feelings of insecurity, as this technology renders conventional and even nuclear military equipment obsolete. In 2022, a massive hypersonic arms race is developing among the major armies, as no country wants to feel left behind.
In the summer of 2021, China tested a hypersonic vehicle that could enter low orbit and later reenter the atmosphere and then navigate to its target. Hypersonic capabilities pose a revolutionary threat to the long-standing military strategic status quo, as the technology brings new asymmetric defensive and offensive capabilities that disrupt the two massive pillars of military strategy in recent decades.
Medical breakthrough extends average life expectancy by 25 years
Young forever, or at least much longer. In 2022, a key breakthrough in biomedicine opens up the prospect of extending productive adulthood and average life expectancy to 25 years, triggering projected ethical, environmental and fiscal crises of epic proportions.
In search of slowing down the natural process of aging, researchers have studied the processes central to how we age from several angles and with a growing arsenal of cutting-edge technologies, from therapeutics to “first edition” at the level of. DNA. The year 2022 sees a major breakthrough in a multifactorial approach, because a cocktail of treatments is put in place which modifies the processes at the cellular level in order to prolong their lifespan and therefore the life of the organism composed of these cells. It’s not cheap, but it’s effective and has already been shown in lab mice containing human DNA, extending their life by around 30% and more.
To read: The biggest economic risks for 2022